Sussan Ley is gearing up to reveal a frontbench composed solely of Liberal party members in the coming days, marking a significant shift away from the Coalition with the Nationals. This comes amid increasing efforts from right-wing factions within her party who are pushing for her removal following the recent fallout with their National counterparts.
Ley's supporters are growing more optimistic that she will not be challenged for her leadership position when parliament reconvenes next week. Notably, potential contenders Andrew Hastie and Angus Taylor have yet to announce their intentions regarding a leadership bid.
In a stark warning to those plotting against the first female leader of the Liberal party, one senior member expressed that the party's reputation would suffer irreparable damage if it appeared they were ousting Ley at the behest of the Nationals.
Last week, David Littleproud, the leader of the Nationals, stated that the Coalition had become "untenable" under Ley’s leadership after she dismissed three Nationals senators for defying party lines on Labor’s hate speech legislation. This action led the Nationals to withdraw from the frontbench, effectively dissolving the Coalition for the second time in just eight months.
Despite some Liberals holding critical views of Ley's overall leadership, many believe her response was justified, placing the blame for the Coalition's collapse squarely on Littleproud’s shoulders. One senior Liberal source emphasized, "Our credibility as a party will be in tatters if we cave into the National party’s demands to replace our leader."
They continued by asserting that now is the critical moment for the Liberal party to rally around a leader who acted in accordance with the collective agreement of the party members, especially after the Nationals disregarded the terms of their Coalition agreement.
While Ley remains open to the possibility of reconciling with the Nationals, a growing faction among her MPs feels that the two parties are likely to remain estranged for the foreseeable future, particularly if Littleproud continues to lead.
Senior Liberals view the Nationals’ breach of solidarity regarding the hate speech laws not as an isolated event, but as part of a troubling trend that could recur. They reference other instances, such as the Nationals’ opposition to the voice to parliament referendum and their rejection of a net zero emissions target, as examples where the junior partner has taken a leading stance, thereby pressuring the Liberals either to follow suit or risk further division.
One Liberal plainly stated, "We are done playing these games."
Tim Wilson, a Liberal frontbencher, voiced his skepticism about the Coalition reuniting while Littleproud remains in charge, stating that it was "hard to see" that happening. Former Liberal MP Jason Falinski also weighed in, suggesting that it was counterproductive to maintain a Coalition alliance when the Nationals are so focused on countering challenges from Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party.
Amid speculation that a leadership spill could occur as early as Monday, senior Liberal sources confirmed that Ley is moving forward with plans to unveil a shadow ministry consisting exclusively of Liberal members before parliament resumes the following day. However, this announcement is likely to come after a memorial service for the late former Liberal MP Katie Allen on Thursday.
One of the options being considered involves reallocating the Nationals' previous portfolios, which cover agriculture, trade, resources, transport, and veterans’ affairs, to current Liberal frontbenchers. Alternatively, Ley may promote certain MPs to fill these roles.
Reports indicate that Littleproud intends to distribute portfolios to the Nationals shortly, possibly as soon as this week.
The momentum behind Ley’s potential ousting seemed to stall on Tuesday, with neither Hastie nor Taylor reaching an agreement on who would present a challenge from the right faction. Supporters of Hastie are pushing for Taylor to step aside, claiming that the former soldier has sufficient backing within the faction to successfully campaign against Ley.
However, insiders revealed that Taylor, who narrowly lost to Ley in a leadership contest following the last election, is reluctant to let Hastie ascend the ranks ahead of him.
Ley's advocates appear increasingly confident that no leadership challenge will unfold next week, citing strong internal support for her management of the crisis with the Nationals and a lack of organization among those seeking her removal. As one MP put it succinctly, "It is just not happening."
